So this is probably something that’s a little more consistent with a stable inflation environment. That being said, I think when you look at the broad trends on a year-ago basis, both very consistent, both showing wage growth in the low 4s, which is pretty good, which is actually something - a year or two ago, we were running more like the high 5s on both of those measures. And October is, of course, the first month of the fourth quarter. MICHAEL FEROLI: So keep in mind that the ECI was for the third quarter. I wanted to ask you, I guess, about that divergence, and which indicator do you put more weight on? ECI, the Employment Cost Index, earlier this week came in firmer, while the jobs report today showed that average hourly wages were up 0.2%, which some could say is on the softer side. SAM AZZARELLO: OK, so then let’s turn to wage growth, which we know is an important input for the broader inflation outlook. So I do think you’re seeing a labor market that’s looking a little less tight than it did several months ago. So you’re seeing the U-6 measure, which also includes other pockets of underemployment. And I think you’re seeing that slack opening up in other measures. You know, you might not want to make too much of a big deal out of one month’s move, but we have seen a pretty consistent trend higher here. It was 3.4% earlier this year at the low. So the unemployment rate, as you mentioned, ticked up to 3.9%. Walk us through if that means anything broader about the trend of the labor market. SAM AZZARELLO: OK, so as a corollary question, the uptick in the unemployment rate. And so I do think it’s consistent with an economy that looks like it’s slowing down. You’re seeing less breadth in overall hiring. You’re also seeing decline in the average workweek. The rest of the economy, you’re seeing pretty good slowing in job growth. Job growth was really driven by local government hiring and health care, so two not very cyclically sensitive sectors. However, I think when you dig into the numbers a little bit, it actually shows a decent amount of softening in labor market activity. So we had 150,000 job gain last month, which was pretty close to expectations. Do you want to highlight some key numbers from the report and your observations of the state of the labor market at the moment? So, Mike, we’re going to start where we always start, which is high level. Economist, to talk about the October jobs report. I’m joined today by Michael Feroli, our Chief U.S. My name is Sam Azzarello, and I lead Content Strategy for Global Research here at J.P. Morgan. SAM AZZARELLO: Welcome to Research Recap. Please enter a valid search, no special characters allowed.
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